Conviction Belongs to the Destination.

Vision is where creators get into the most trouble. The same force that builds great companies can destroy them. Steve Jobs had both sides. His conviction helped get Corning to ship glass for the first iPhone on a timeline its leaders thought impossible. The same force, aimed at the wrong things, helped push him out of Apple in 1985.

So where is the line between conviction and delusion? I use a simple test.

A founder with healthy vision is unshakable about where they are going and open-minded about how to get there. A founder in the shadow has it backward. Rigid about the product, the plan and the timeline. Vague about where it all leads. When the market says the route is wrong, they hear an attack on the destination.

The second test: contact with data

Healthy conviction survives contact with data. It gets sharper when you test it. Delusion avoids the test. If you are not running an experiment because you fear what it will show, you have probably crossed the line.

Annie Duke, the professional poker player turned decision strategist, offers a useful tool in her 2022 book Quit. Set kill criteria before you start: a specific signal and a date that would tell you to change course. Decide while you are calm, not while you are invested. Kill criteria apply to the route. They never touch the destination.

Run the conviction test

1. Write the destinationOne paragraph. The change you want to make in the world.
2. Write the routeOne paragraph. The product, the plan, the timeline.
3. Ask which you defend harderIf you defend the route more fiercely than the destination, loosen your grip on the route.
4. Set kill criteriaFor the current route, write one signal and one date that would make you change it.